Predictive trends in disability in the adult population due to malignant neoplasms of independent (primary) multiple localizations

Authors:

Filipopolskaya Lilia Vladimirovna – Head of the expert staff N 8, doctor of medical and social expertise, Federal State Institution “Main Bureau for Medical and Social Expertise in the Moscow” of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, 13 Leningradsky Ave, building 1, 125040 Moscow, Russian Federation; e-mail: lilusun@inbox.ru.

Letskaya Olga Alexandrovna— PhD in Medical Sciences (Cand. Med. Sci), Deputy Head of Expert Work, Doctor for Medical and Social Expertise, Federal State Institution “Main Bureau for Medical and Social Expertise in the Moscow” of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, 13 Leningradsky Ave, building 1, 125040 Moscow, Russian Federation; e-mail: letskaya.oa@mse77.ru.

Zapariy Natalia Sergeevna – Grand PhD in Medical Sciences (Dr. Med. Sci.), Associate Professor, Head of The Educational and Methodological Center, Federal State Budgetary Institution “Federal Bureau of Medical and Social Expertise” of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, 3 Ivan Susanin Street, 127486 Moscow, Russian Federation; e-mail: zapariy_n@fbmse.ru; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7687-763X.

Kosheleva Oksana Vladimirovna – PhD in Medical sciences, deputy head of expert panels, physician for medical-social expertise, Federal Bureau of Medical and Social Expertise, 3 Ivana Susanina Street, 127486 Moscow, Russian Federation. E-mail: kosheleva.ov@mse77.ru.

Ermolenko Tatiana Valerievna – Grand PhD in Medical sciences (Dr. Med. Sci.), Head of the Scientific Activity Department, Albrecht Federal Scientific and Educational Centre of Medkal and Social Expertise and Rehabilitation, 50 Bestuzhevskaya Street, 195067 St. Petersburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: tatvalerm@yandex.ru; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3903

Annotation:

Introduction. The issue of potential trends in disability formation in the short and medium term is highly relevant. One approach to analyzing possible vector changes in disability indicators involves utilizing forecast results. Forecasting is a crucial management function. Assessing trends in the dynamics of disability indicators serves as an information base for developing programs aimed at their prevention and reduction.

Aim. To calculate predictive values for the rates of primary, recurrent, and accumulated disability in the adult population due to malignant neoplasms of independent (primary) multiple sites up to 2027, taking into account agespecific indicators, severity of disability, and gender characteristics in the city of Moscow.

Materials and methods. Based on data on the dynamics of the levels of primary, repeated and accumulated disability of the adult population due to malignant neoplasms of independent (primary) multiple localizations for 2016-2022 in Moscow, the prognostic values of the indicators for 2023-2027 were calculated by extrapolation with the construction of linear regression models.

Results. The article presents forecasted trends in disability among the adult population due to malignant neoplasms of independent (primary) multiple localizations in Moscow until 2027. These trends indicate a decrease in the rates of primary disability due to this cause, including among people over working age, among the female population, for disability of Group I, and for disability of Group II among the male population. At the same time, an increase in primary disability is noted among the working-age population, among the male population, and in the rates of Group II-III disability.
An increase in the rate of recurrent disability is forecast, including among the population over working age and among the male population, alongside a decrease in the disability rate among the working-age population and for Group I-II-III disabilities among working-age men.
A decrease in the rate of accumulated disability is expected, both among the working-age and over-working-age populations, for Group I-II-III disability rates, and among both the male and female populations. However, an increase is forecast in the rate of Group II disability among the working-age population and Group I disability among the population over working age.

Discussion. The obtained forecast data indicate a significant transformation of the disability structure and allow us to identify key challenges for the healthcare system. The most alarming is the projected negative dynamics of primary disability among men and people of working age, which indicates the need to strengthen targeted prevention and screening programs for these cohorts.
The expected increase in the levels of primary disability of groups II and III, as well as repeated disability, indicates an upcoming increase in the burden on the staff of rehabilitation organizations. This determines the need for early planning of human and organizational resources. In parallel, the projected reduction in accumulated disability may indirectly indicate an improvement in survival and treatment effectiveness, but requires further study. Based on the analysis carried out, it is possible to foresee the continued relevance of the tasks of improving the medical and social literacy of the population and strengthening the rehabilitation service for an adequate response to the predicted epidemiological shifts.

Conclusion. The forecasts described above were calculated for the purpose of their practical use in management. Our predicted dynamics of the levels of primary, repeated and accumulated disability due to malignant neoplasms of independent (primary) multiple localizations indicates a positive trend and the urgency of further activation of the preventive work of medical organizations.

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